Latest poll shows Pauline Hanson only red flag for Labor win
THE only barrier to Annastacia Palaszczuk winning tomorrow's election appears to be a One Nation surge in regional Queensland.
Final pre-election polling shows Labor holds 37% of the primary vote and, if that was a uniform result statewide, the party would secure as many as 54 seats in the new 93 seat parliament.
But One Nation has won over a quarter of voters in some regional seats and the resurgent party's preference flows hold the key.
There will be three-way contests in several seats as support for One Nation surges to 25% in some electorates but the party is likely to poll only 12% of the primary vote across all 93 seats being contested.
Labor's 37% is about the same level achieved at the 2015 election when it won with the narrowest of margins while support for the LNP has dropped more than six percentage points to 35%.
Galaxy analyst David Briggs said the latest Courier Mail poll showed Labor had 52% of the two-party preferred vote and the LNP was on 48% following preferences allocation.
"If such a result was observed at the ballot box at the weekend, Annastacia Palaszczuk's government would be returned," he said.
"With a uniform swing this could result in Labor picking up as many as 54 seats in the new 93 seat parliament.
"However, the poll confirms the swing will not be uniform with a swing to Labor in Southeast Queensland and a swing against Labor in the rest of the state."
Mr Briggs said the non-uniform swing put Labor-held seats in regional areas in doubt, with the unpredictability of the preference flow from One Nation candidates also expected to reduce Labor's seat haul.
"By preferencing against the sitting members it is likely that One Nation preferences will see the LNP pick up some Labor-held seats against the statewide trend," he said.
Labor's primary vote in the Southeast is at 40% compared to the LNP's 36% while the Greens come in at 12% and One Nation at 8%.
Regional Queensland voters put Labor at 30% of the vote, LNP at 33%, One Nation at 20% and the Greens at just 5%.
There has been much speculation about the LNP leaving the door open to form government with One Nation if it does not have a clear majority from Saturday's poll.
While this polling information cannot take into account any deals between parties, the statewide figures show this is a real possibility.
Mr Briggs said the 12% primary vote for Pauline Hanson's One Nation across Queensland showed a decline of six percentage points since a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign.
"This is because the latest poll has been able to take into consideration the number of seats that One Nation candidates will be contesting," he said.
Support for the Greens has increased since the 2015 election and now stands at 9%.
Support for the Katter Australian Party is now 2% and other minor parties and independents are on 5%.
The poll is based on a sample of 1556 voters throughout the state from Monday to Wednesday this week. - NewsRegional